Metrics for our questions about homeless


California Department of Public Health Recommended Initial Metrics:
  • R0: 2-3 (unmitigated) or 0.9-1.5 (mitigated)
  • Infection fatality ratio: 0.5-1.5%
  • Hospitalization rate: 5-20%
  • Doubling time before social distancing: 6-7 days
  • Current hospitalized patients: county to determine
  • Social distancing - % reduction: 30%-70%
  • ICU percent: 1-5%
  • Ventilated percent: 1-5%
  • Hospital (non-ICU) length of stay: 7 days
  • ICU length of stay (in addition to non-ICU length of stay): 9 days
  • Length of time on a ventilator if intubated: 10 days
  • Hospital market share: county to determine
  • Regional population: county to determine
  • Currently known regional infections: county to determine
Our metrics for the SBD model for homeless

Assumptions:
  • 5760 estimate population
  • >211 days: We have no intervention for SBD county homeless.
  • Ro=Rt : 2.20
  • 5% Case fatality rate for homeless increases by a factor of 5 because of their co-morbidities and stressful living situation. It could be up to 50% due to this publication: 
  • 23.6% Hospitalization rates: 9/38 (23.6%);ICU rates 5/38 (13.2%); deaths 1/38 (2.6%)
  • 15 days: Average length of stay: No current data on SB, 10-20 day hospitalization average 17. 
  • 8 days: Duration patient is infectious, I brought this up to 8 from the 2.9 default value to reflect the homeless lifestyle. 




Beds in Clinics in SBD

CHHS Open Data portal:

Model by PENN for homeless:


Imperial College Model:

R Shiny model:

How to build a RECON model for COVID-19

Comments

Post a Comment